When Will Elon Musk's Tesla And SpaceX Merge? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Rounak JainWed, April 1, 2026 at 12:01 AM UTC

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Elon Musk's xAI and SpaceX merged in February, valuing the company at over $1.25 trillion. SpaceX is now preparing for an initial public offering (IPO).

SpaceX IPO

SpaceX reportedly plans to raise $75 billion from its IPO, valuing the space exploration company at around $1.75 trillion.

SpaceX's confidential filing would show that the company is still targeting a June listing.

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Tesla-SpaceX Merger Buzz

Amid the IPO, there's also buzz around a merger between Tesla Inc. and SpaceX.

While there has been no official information around a merger between the two companies, Gary Black, the managing director of The Future Fund LLC, has warned against such a move.

Black Raises Dilution Concerns

Black said that the deal could see a "20-25% reduction" in the value of the EV giant's stock "if TSLA with a 100x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap buys SpaceX with a 200x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap."

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Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $42,000 has been bet on the contract "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?"

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Source: Kalshi

Bettors are not really confident about a merger between the two companies.

The probability of the two companies merging before Mar. 1, 2027, is 22% as per bettors, down by 5%. The highest probability that bettors have assigned to this move is before May 1, 2027, at 26%, down by 8%.

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