Scientists warn 'greatest risk to civilisation' coming sooner than thought

Claudia Trotman & Jane LavenderTue, July 28, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

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A study has come up with a stark warning -Credit:Getty Images/iStockphoto

Scientists have issued a stark warning about when humanity could begin to see the collapse of civilization - and the clock is ticking faster than we think.

Previously, Elon Musk claimed that declining birth rates pose the "greatest risk to the future of civilisation."

Currently, the fertility rate in the US hovers at 1.62, a figure that appears to trouble Elon. As of 2022, the UK registers even lower at 1.57.

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Research suggests nations need a fertility rate of 2.7 children per woman to sustain population levels.

Experts are now cautioning that within just two decades, we could be staring down the barrel of societal collapse. Previously, academics thought roughly 2.1 was adequate to ward off long-term extinction, reports the Daily Star.

Experts warn it could start impacting civilisation within two decades -Credit:Getty Images/iStockphoto

However, the research team contended the original calculation didn't adequately factor in crucial elements such as mortality rates, sex ratio distribution, the reality that some adults choose not to have children, and natural fluctuations in family size.

Musk, who regularly claims to be "banging on the baby drum" has been sounding the alarm on this alleged crisis for years. He claimed it would become "the biggest problem the world will face in years."

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He added that declining birthrates would also trigger fewer workers, mounting debt, overstretched healthcare and pension systems. He even suggested it might spark complete social chaos.

Diane Cuaresma, one of the study's authors, said in the report: "Considering stochasticity [unpredictability] in fertility and mortality rates, and sex ratios, a fertility rate higher than the standard replacement level is necessary to ensure sustainability of our population."

It's all to do with falling birth rates -Credit:Stoke Sentinel

The research team emphasized that maintaining population sustainability requires consistently achieving specific fertility targets each year. They contend that languages, ancestral lineages, diversity and cultural heritage all depend on meeting these demographic thresholds.

In their paper published in the journal Plos One, the researchers noted: "The underpopulation crisis has been a serious threat to the sustainability of developed countries."

They added: "The worldwide total fertility rate – the number of children per woman – has dropped from 5.3 in the 1960s to 2.3 in 2023."

Currently, the Republic of Korea has the world's lowest fertility rate at just 0.87. BBC News reports that specialists point to high living expenses, intense workplace expectations, and increasing desires for better work-life balance as contributing factors.

In the UK, birth rates have fallen dramatically over the past ten years. Latest figures connected to the 'baby bust' reveal that some boroughs have seen a 60% decline in women having babies since 2013.

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Source: “AOL General News”